In Raub, Pakatan saw a 45% swing, while in Jerantut (46%), Temerloh(46%), Indera Mahkota (50%), Kuantan (52%) and Bera (43%).
Ex-Umno state Assemblyman, Mohd Ariff Sabri Aziz said, based on 2008 performance, six seats showed great promise for Pakatan. The opposition won in Kuantan and Indera Mahkota. Both seats were won by PKR.
“But this time round, with the racial factoring, and a simple vote swing of 4%, my projections are that Pakatan could well win eight parliamentary seats in Pahang.
The seats are Cameron Highlands, Raub, Kuala Lipis, Jerantut, Temerloh, Indera Mahkota, Kuantan and Paya Besar. This is because there are a few peculiar features shown by Pahang and which are capable of being generalized,”said Mohd Ariff in his new article paublish by alternative media
Mohd Ariff or his blogger nick name ‘Sakmongkol AK47 listed up facts on those parlimentary why BN could lose in the next general elections as below;
(1) Areas with a large Malay population do not necessarily lead to easy wins for BN. Jerantut, Temerloh, Indera Mahkota and Kuantan all have majority Malay voting populations. But in each of these areas, Pakatan secured 46-52% of the votes. Pakatan got 40% votes in Kuala Krau and 43% in Bera.
(2) It means Malays are more discerning and are ready to evaluate their voting preference in terms of the costs and benefits.
(3) Jerantut in particular with a population of 81% Malay voters saw Pakatan took home 46% of the votes.
(4) As a rule, if Pakatan puts up a Malay candidate in these areas, the Malay votes are easily split 50:50
He added that, votes by Pakatan gained very often by the protest votes taht swing yo then oppositon.
“They probably were but no one is sure how much of the swing to the opposition in 2008 was done in the name of protest,
and to assume that all were protest votes would be a big mistake,”said the Ex-Najib Pekan’s Information Chief.
Mohd Ariff stated that, the swing to the opposition can only be attributed to the people having made a choice based on conviction and belief.
He said, the people believed in Pakatan and so made the swing. This type of voting preference is not easily overturned. Unlike votes secured through vote buying and intimidation. These votes are deceptive, fickle and can be re-taken.
