The 10th Sarawak State Election would be remembered as a key milestone towards the firming up of a two party system in Malaysia. While much has been said about the results (and the implications to the national politics) of the election, there has been a lesser intensity to srutinise the various irregularities alleged during the election.
This short analysis shall attempt to highlight the analysis of the results objectively and put the right spotlight on the alleged irregularities that will have a major impact in the next general election.
ELECTION RESULTS
1) Vote Swing
The vote swing to KEADILAN (and Pakatan Rakyat) has been unprecedented. KEADILAN registered a positive vote swing (voters changing their votes from BN to KEADILAN) in 26 seats it contested.
The highest vote swing registered by Pakatan Rakyat was at Meluan, an Iban majority seat contested by KEADILAN which saw a 31% vote swing for KEADILAN (compared to the last state election), despite only a 4% increase in voters’ turnout. This huge swing indicates the ability and willingness of a rural Iban community to voice their brewing dissatisfaction of Barisan Nasional at the ballot box, in spite of all the intimidation and political bribery showered to them.
The 26 seats that saw a swing against BN represent communities of various races (Malay/Melanu majority, Chinese majority, Iban majority, Bidayuh majority, Orang Ulu majority and mixed seats alike) and geographical locations, confirming that the malcontent is widespread and not restricted to a particular demography or race. The 26 seats are:
N42 Meluan 31.4%
N53 Kakus 25.9%
N65 Senadin 24.6%
N34 Krian 24.0%
N71 Bukit Sari 11.9%
N70 Ba’kelalan 11.6%
N62 Lambir 11.0%
N66 Marudi 11.0%
N56 Baleh 10.7%
N11 Batu Lintang 10.1%
N52 Tamin 9.5%
N55 Katibas 8.7%
N31 Layar 8.4%
N17 Tarat 7.8%
N67 Telang Usan 7.7%
N14 Asajaya 7.7%
N54 Pelagus 5.9%
N06 Tupong 5.9%
N49 Nangka 5.6%
N43 Ngemah 5.4%
N08 Satok 3.5%
N02 Tasik Biru 2.9%
N05 Demak Laut 1.7%
N51 Balingian 1.2%
N18 Tebedu 0.2%
N44 Machan 0.1%
The swing achieved by KEADILAN is also within the same momentum and quantum as the swing achieved by DAP in most of the seats DAP contested. This bode well for Pakatan Rakyat and the emergence of a two party system in Sarawak (and Malaysia), as the voters give strong branding and recognition to Pakatan Rakyat regardless of the constituent party that contests a particular seat.
The difference in terms of the number of seats won by DAP and KEADILAN respectively was due to the presence (or lack of) of a strong opposition in a particular area before the 10th state election. Both DAP and KEADILAN have been active in the urban and semi urban areas ever since the local Sarawak chapters of the parties joined the national struggle (in 1978 and 1999 respectively).
Unfortunately, Pakatan Rakyat parties’ presence in many of the rural seats (consequently the majority seats for the Iban, Bidayuh and Orang Ulu) was not as equally strong previously. The majority of these seats were left to Sarawak-based parties, including SNAP on the basis that the Sarawak-based parties could do a better job of creating a movement among the rural folks of all backgrounds.
This did not happen. In between 2006 and 2011, more and more Iban/Bidayuh/Orang Ulu leaders joined KEADILAN and our membership in the rural areas rose steadily, signalling the shift of the rural voters to KEADILAN as the preferred political movement to represent their voice.
It was on this basis that KEADILAN was entrusted by Pakatan Rakyat leadership to concentrate on the major chunk of the Melayu/Melanau/Iban/Bidayuh and Orang Ulu areas in the last state election. The initial decision was to concentrate on 25 seats where we have had a relatively stronger presence.
However, in order to avoid BN winning the remainder 24 seats uncontested, KEADILAN took the heavy burden to contest all the 49 seats – since no other parties wanted to contest the 24 seats. Without this move, BN would have scored a major victory on the nomination day and any notion of political change (as denoted by the slogan “Change” or “Ubah” or “Berubahlah”) as advocated by Pakatan Rakyat in the last state election would have been hollow. The people of Sarawak would have ridiculed a Pakatan Rakyat campaign that boasts a chance for change when BN was only 12 seats away from winning the state government on the nomination day.
As a result, KEADILAN ended up contesting 49 seats where the opposition presence was weak (and in some areas non-existent), as indicated by the percentage of swing votes needed to defeat BN in these seats:
N71 Bukit Sari 49%
N42 Meluan 45%
N54 Pelagus 45%
N43 Ngemah 44%
N51 Balingian 42%
N56 Baleh 41%
N66 Marudi 41%
N55 Katibas 40%
N35 Belawai 35%
N53 Kakus 35%
N33 Kalaka 35%
N49 Nangka 33%
N57 Belaga 31%
N14 Asajaya 30%
N36 Semop 30%
N31 Layar 29%
N05 Demak Laut 29%
N61 Bekenu 28%
N21 Simunjan 28%
N18 Tebedu 28%
N65 Senadin 26%
N06 Tupong 26%
N08 Satok 26%
N62 Lambir 26%
N58 Jepak 25%
N01 Opar 23%
N67 Telang Usan 23%
N25 Balai Ringin 22%
N23 Lingga 22%
N44 Machan 21%
N32 Bukit Saban 21%
N17 Tarat 21%
N16 Bengoh 20%
N52 Tamin 19%
N02 Tasik Biru 18%
N07 Samariang 16%
N34 Krian 15%
N69 Batu Danau 15%
N04 Pantai Damai 15%
N19 Kedup 13%
N60 Kemena 12%
N26 Bukit Begunan 11%
N29 Batang Ai 8%
N70 Ba’kelalan 8%
N30 Saribas 3%
N50 Dalat 0%
Expectedly, KEADILAN won 3 seats where the swing needed is smaller. For KEADILAN to win more seats, the average swing across the board would have to be a lot larger than what already has been displayed by any Pakatan Rakyat parties in the last election.
Nevertheless, the 10th Sarawak election provided a good platform and ground to double the efforts in preparation for the 13th General Election and the next state election. If the momentum of change is kept and a similar swing is achieved in many of the seats, the following seats that KEADILAN had contested may fall in the next state election:
N11 Batu Lintang -21%
N34 Krian -9%
N70 Ba’kelalan -4%
N65 Senadin 2%
N53 Kakus 9%
N52 Tamin 9%
N17 Tarat 13%
N42 Meluan 14%
N62 Lambir 15%
N02 Tasik Biru 15%
N67 Telang Usan 16%
N19 Kedup 16%
N30 Saribas 16%
N06 Tupong 20%
N16 Bengoh 21%
N31 Layar 21%
N60 Kemena 21%
N44 Machan 21%
2) Level of support from various races
KEADILAN has also carried out a preliminary analysis on the level of support of the various communities for Pakatan Rakyat in the last state election, based on the number of votes KEADILAN garnered at the seats it contested. This gives a good indication of the complexity of the Sarawak voting pattern and challenges ahead for Pakatan Rakyat in Sarawak.
While there was a steady swing towards Pakatan Rakyat/KEADILAN across the board among all communities, the degree of support varies from one community to another as follows:
COMMUNITY /LEVEL OF SUPPORT /(% OF VOTES GOING TO PR/KEADILAN FROM THE COMMUNITY)
Malay/Melanau 6% – 35% (average 19%)
Iban 3% – 60% (average 32%)
Chinese 50% – 80% (average 65%)
Bidayuh 20% – 30% (average 26%)
Orang Ulu 22% – 56%
The level of support from each community is also greatly influenced by a number of factors which include the strength of the candidates in the area, the strength of the party machinery in the area, the urban/rural divide and the logistical/geographical complexities that a candidate has to grapple with to meet voters.
While the varying degrees of support inter and intra-communities indicate that none of the communities back a particular coalition (as claimed by BN to victimise the voters), it is also alarming that there is a huge difference in terms of the level of support to Pakatan Rakyat between one community to the other. This will require a lot of work on the part of Pakatan Rakyat to ensure that our messages and ground work can push the average support among the Malay/Melanay, Iban and Bidayuh higher than the current level of support.
ELECTION IRREGULARITIES
Rampant abuse of government machineries at the state and federal level
The various announcements of instant projects by the interim government during an election period have been a constant feature in any election in this country. What was more surprising was the complete mobilisation of government departments that include KEMAS, JASA, Information Department and Welfare Department to become campaigners and agents for BN throughout the election.
There were reports across the state that KEMAS and JASA officers camping in long houses and in voters’ residence for a few days before election. Apart from the informal campaigning, there were allegations that they offer money in exchange for votes.
Rampant vote buying
There were various reports that money being exchanged for political votes. Throughout Sarawak in the aftermath of the state election, people talk casually of how much money a vote could bid. Despite various reports formally and informally, SPR did not even comment on the instances of vote buying when it becomes an open secret in Sarawak.
BN was also alleged to improve the manners in which votes were bought. Identified voters were given a prepayment in exchange for them to collect a slip at its pondok panas during voting day. If a particular polling stream gives votes to BN, the identified voters who could produce the slip will be rewarded with a final cash payment.
SPR refusal to given Form 14
The increase in voters’ turnout in some constituencies has raised an eyebrow. Some of the seats KEADILAN contested saw an increase of 53% (in Senadin) as compared to 2006. Without a signed Form14 given to counting agents, candidates could not tally the number of ballots issued with the number of voters’ turnout.
There were also allegations that unqualified voters (with green IC) were also allowed to vote.
Refusal for recount
SPR has changed the rule that a recount can only be done at the voting place, not the centre to tally the total votes. According to the rule set by SPR, a recount request can only be made once at the polling stream.
This rule is impractical and will effectively abolish any right for a recount at the next general election. In the case of Senadin, KEADILAN was leading in most of the polling streams so it did not make sense to request for a recount. It was only when the total votes were combined with postal votes that a recount was deemed necessary.
KEADILAN will bring this matter with SPR urgently as this denies the fundamental right for a recount that is necessary to ensure a clean and fair election.
MOHD RAFIZI RAMLI
DIRECTOR OF STRATEGY
PARTI KEADILAN RAKYAT
26 APRIL 2011
