Following the death of Bagan Pinang assemblyman Azman Mohammad Noor on Sept 4, Malaysia will go through its ninth by-election since the 2008 General Elections. Considered a \u201cstronghold\u201d for Barisan Nasional (BN), the state seat was won by Azman with a 2,333-vote majority against PAS candidate Ramli Ismail. The seat has 14,192 voters, with a\u00a0 voter breakdown of 66% Malay, 19.9% Indian, 10.5% Chinese and 3.5% others. <\/p>\n
Sizable as the majority was in 2008, however, the margin of victory is a sharp decline from the 4,411-vote majority obtained in the 2004 General Elections \u2013 a point that gives Pakatan Rakyat (PR) a glimmer of hope in wresting the seat from BN. <\/p>\n
Though many bloggers admit that a win for BN is likely, they are nevertheless keeping a sharp eye on the results of this by-election to gauge BN’s popularity amongst non-Malays, particularly Indians. <\/p>\n
In making up almost a fifth of the voter base, Indians play a vital role in the outcome, and given the Sri Mahamariamman Hindu temple fiasco in Shah Alam \u2013 known as \u201cCow-head Gate\u201d \u2013 bloggers see a majority of Indians voting against the ethno-religious policies of Umno. <\/p>\n
Going postal for BN<\/strong> <\/p>\n Crucial to the outcome too are 5,000 postal voters, with army personnel making up almost 2,000 votes. \u201cPostal votes could be crucial in Bagan Pinang,\u201d writes Anil Netto.<\/a> \u201cAccording to the chart here,<\/a> Pusasda (Pusat Latihan Asas Tentera Darat) Kem Si Rusa falls under this state assembly seat with close to 2,000 postal voters. In March last year, Harakah<\/em> reported an alleged irregularity involving a Bagan Pinang postal voter here<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n Richard Loh<\/a>, blogging for Malaysia For All, has assumed that these 5,000 postal votes are all for Umno, which would see the party retain the seat. \u201cYes, Umno is now leading by 5,000 votes even though the Election Commission has yet to announce the date of polling for the Bagan Pinang by-election.<\/p>\n \u201cIn Malaysia Boleh, we still continue with the postal votes for the police and armed forces and from past election results, over 90% usually goes to BN. Looks like Umno is sure to win this State seat,\u201d Loh writes.<\/p>\n Malaysian Joe,<\/a> in his prediction, outlines the difficulty PR faces in wresting the seat from BN. \u201cTechnically, PR will need to secure 90% of the non-postal votes to secure victory in Bagan Pinang and even that by a very slim margin of within 100+ votes,\u201d he wrote. <\/p>\n Cow-head Gate<\/strong> <\/p>\n Though BN has a big head-start with the postal votes, the influence of Cow-head Gate among Indian voters has The Rembau Times<\/a> fashioning a scenario in which the incumbent might lose the seat: \u201cNow they (PR) have about 2,800 votes in the bag, assuming 80% of the Chinese and Indians vote PAS. So they have to only secure an additional 2,200+ votes from the Malay voters to win that seat.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cIf Bagan Pinang falls, a doomsday scenario for BN comes into play. I had this in mind a while back, that envisages a one-week time interval where basically BN loses two states under its control and an onslaught of defections, that leads to either martial law or …\u201d <\/p>\n Political analyst Khoo Kay Peng<\/a>, also writing in the context of Cow-head Gate fiasco, hopes that BN would lose the Bagan Pinang so that they learn a lesson: <\/p>\n \u201cLet the Bagan Pinang by-election become a valuable lesson to Umno. They must lose the by-election to understand that this country wants to move away from the old ethno-religious politics which is senseless, irresponsible, shameless and violent.\u201d <\/p>\n